Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet2. Apr. 26, 15:04 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiJD Vance out as VP by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is not yet resolving this market following an incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
- The creator believes Trump was more likely the intended target rather than Vance, and will wait for investigation results before resolving YES or NO.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES based on the April 25, 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner incident.
- The attacker's manifesto targeted "Administration officials" by rank, with Trump as the primary target — Vance was not specifically or individually targeted.
- The creator is applying a narrow interpretation: a general threat against a group does not trigger a person-specific assassination attempt market.
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? entschieden?
- Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.