Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?
RegulierungOne-OffRohstoffeUS-Politik3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 61.9%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 37 Minuten
8. Sept. 25, 18:18 UTC31. Dez. 29, 19:13 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Will the SCOTUS agree to hear a case about CFTC pre-emption wrt to prediction markets / events contracts by 2030?
- The case can be about Kalshi or any other event contract venue.
- The spirit of the market intends to resolve on the issue of whether or not state sports betting laws will be pre-empted, but in the interest of avoiding rules issues, any preemption case about PMs will do.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by market close, the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case where the Questions Presented include whether federal law (e.g., the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets/event contracts, and the Court holds oral argument (including in a consolidated case).
- Summary dispositions without argument and emergency applications on the shadow docket do NOT count.
