Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 16:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose2044 6.8%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet9. Apr. 26, 18:05 UTC31. Dez. 48, 18:53 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWhich of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiWill Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill Tucker Carlson announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWho will run for president in 2028?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" for a specific election year option if Pope Leo XIV formally registers as a candidate for the office of President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- If Leo XIV (born Robert Prevost in Chicago, 1955) resigned, returned to the US, and ran (e.g., in 2028), he meets Article II requirements (natural-born citizen, 35+, 14-year residency).
- No precedent exists, but it’s legally possible post-resignation.