Wird die Marktkapitalisierung von Tesla (TSLA) vor Ende 2035 8,6 Billionen US-Dollar erreichen?
AktienCustomTechnikKapitalmaßnahmenWirtschaft & Unternehmen9J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.4%
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14
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert5. Sept. 25, 13:03 UTC30. Dez. 35, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
This is the valuation that triggers the maximum bonus for Musk in the next 10 years (US$1.03-trillion).
- What are the odds it is reached?
- Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on total return for a TSLA shareholder (dividends reinvested), not simply Tesla's nominal market cap.
- The target is equivalent to achieving 8.6/1.23 times the current share price (buying at $392.65 today).
- Key scenarios for edge cases:
- New share issuance: Only per-share value is tracked; dilution from new shares does not count toward the $8.6T target
