Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?
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Veraltet17. März 25, 07:16 UTC1. Dez. 26, 07:59 UTC
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Will Susan Collins (Maine) Outperform outperform Republicans by 10%?
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Manifold MarketsWill Susan Collins win the Maine general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?
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KalshiWho will endorse Susan Collins?
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Susan Collins is a Republican U.S. Senator from Maine who has served since 1997.
- She has historically outperformed typical Republican candidates in Maine, positioning herself as a moderate in a state that leans Democratic overall.
- A January 2025 political science paper titled "The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections" by Bonica, Rhee, and Studen examines how candidate ideology affects vote share.
- The paper finds that a standard deviation change in ideological midpoint between candidates results in an average vote share penalty of 0.6 percentage points, with the authors concluding that "gains associated with ideological moderation are relatively modest and likely secondary to turnout effects."
- Matthew Yglesias has challenged this paper's conclusions, suggesting that moderates like Susan Collins consistently outperform their state's partisan baseline, contrary to the paper's findings that ideological moderation offers only modest electoral advantages.
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