Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 89.5%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet13. Apr. 26, 14:28 UTC5. März 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?
Manifold MarketsWill the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsThe next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) receives at least 5% of the party list votes ("Zweitstimme") in the next German federal election.
- It will resolve to "No" otherwise.
- The official result will be determined by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin).
- Verification can be made via the official website at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/.
- If the party meets the threshold through winning three constituencies despite failing the 5% party list vote, the market will still resolve to "Yes."
