Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 89.5%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet13. Apr. 26, 14:28 UTC5. März 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsThe next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) receives at least 5% of the party list votes ("Zweitstimme") in the next German federal election.
- It will resolve to "No" otherwise.
- The official result will be determined by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin).
- Verification can be made via the official website at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/.
- If the party meets the threshold through winning three constituencies despite failing the 5% party list vote, the market will still resolve to "Yes."
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? entschieden?
- Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? soll am 5. März 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria