Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 71.6%
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet21. Feb. 24, 21:22 UTC22. Feb. 27, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
Manifold MarketsWill Liquid Death canned water still be sold in USA stores ten years from now? (2024-2034)
Manifold MarketsYears from now, will it "come out that J.D. Vance was paying male hookers"?
Manifold MarketsWill any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhat will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiRegeln
This could be positive (AI technology has made some improvement to my life that improves my day-to-day experience) or negative (AI puts me out of work or lowers my ability to get a job or lowers my income as a software engineer)
- This market is very subjective, so I will not be participating.
- Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Secondary economic effects do not count: If the AI bubble bursts and affects the creator's living standards as a secondary effect (e.g., through investor behavior), this would not count as AI affecting their quality of life.
- AI must be instrumental in the change, not just an indirect cause through economic ripple effects.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.6pt100%
- Meta0%
- Google0%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 74.296,6 €
KALSHIWhat will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly?
- Event does not qualify+1.0pt99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence-6.0pt1%
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability-29.0pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No+5.5pt78.2%
- Yes-5.5pt21.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 208.134,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 51.163,5 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.5pt72.7%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt12.1%
- Gemini-1.2pt8.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-6.8pt25.5%
- $2.25–$2.5T21.6%
- $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt18.6%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+2.0pt90.8%
- ChatGPT2.8%
- MUSE0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 184.444,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 23.430,3 €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- When will Trump officially rename AI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 71.6% (Stand: 24. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? entschieden?
- Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? soll am 22. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This could be positive (AI technology has made some improvement to my life that improves my day-to-day experience) or negative (AI puts me out of work or lowers my ability to get a job or lowers my income as a software engineer)