Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 91.7%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
21. Mai 23, 10:30 UTC1. Feb. 31, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dunkey's publishing company, BIGMODE, still exist as an independent publisher by the end of the following years?
Manifold MarketsWill arxiv still exist in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves No if Metaculus permanently shuts down or stops working.
- If it is still working, resolves Yes.
- If Metaculus does something unexpected e.g. merge with Manifold Markets: resolves Yes if questions made before the merger still work afterwards.
- No if those questions permanently stop working.