Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 80%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet20. März 26, 07:38 UTC31. Dez. 30, 07:34 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see the opening of his Presidential Center?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see Grand Theft Auto 6?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 693.010,4 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 266.941,4 €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 248.725,9 €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? entschieden?
- Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.