Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 98.4%
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet29. Aug. 23, 08:23 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027
Manifold MarketsWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- May resolve N/A if there is no pope and, in my judgement, if there were a pope he might confirm that Jesus has returned.
- Market idea from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823/comment/39215917
- [link preview]Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Pope's confirmation must specifically refer to the Second Coming of Christ for the market to resolve YES.
- If the Pope confirms the Second Coming of Christ has occurred, this would resolve YES.
Offene Märkte
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 56,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 13.287,2 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No75%
- Yes25%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6587,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5599,3 €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Pietro Parolin5%
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 118.039,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 64,5 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No+1.5pt89.1%
- Yes-1.5pt10.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 798,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No-0.1pt91%
- Yes+0.1pt9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSCatholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- No85.7%
- Yes14.3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 793,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
- Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
- Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?
- Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? entschieden?
- Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.