Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.6%
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet29. Dez. 25, 23:10 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 2000 USD/t on March 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 3500 USD/t on March 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the average price of a dozen grade A large eggs exceed $2 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the average price of a dozen grade A large eggs exceed $3 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the average price of a dozen grade A large eggs exceed $1.75 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the average price of a dozen grade A large eggs exceed $1.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran enriches uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) or higher at any point during 2026, as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or credible intelligence assessments.
- Resolution will be based on reports from the IAEA (https://www.iaea.org/), official statements from the U.S. State Department or intelligence community, or peer-reviewed analysis from established nuclear research institutions such as the Institute for Science and International Security (https://isis-online.org/).
- The market resolves NO if Iran does not achieve weapons-grade enrichment during 2026, regardless of whether it increases enrichment levels below 90%.
- As of June 2025, Iran possessed 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is just below weapons-grade.
- Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%.
