Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 50.2%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juli 26, 17:35 UTC1. Sept. 28, 23:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
KalshiWill members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?
Manifold MarketsIf US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?
Manifold MarketsNasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
PolymarketS&P 500 (SPX) close at the final trading day of 2026
FutuurRegeln
I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've believed particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me.
- I've invested a bit in other individual stocks and I'm sure I've beaten the market overall with those as well but during my time investing it has largely been a bull market so I don't put much stock (heh) in that.
- From market close 08/28/26 to market close 09/01/28 I will track the performance of the S&P 500 vs the performance of my non-index investments, expressed in annual average return.
- This market resolves NO if the former offers a better return over that time, YES if the latter does.
- The title refers to individual stock trading, but if I decide at some point to trade options or invest in other assets, their performance would be included as well.
- I will include cash-on-hand that is not part of my checking account or emergency fund as part of my non-index investments for calculating return purposes.