Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 72.1%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten
9. Jan. 23, 22:31 UTC1. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Manifold MarketsBryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?
Manifold MarketsWill Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Vox create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Holden Karnofsky, co-CEO of Open Philanthropy.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
