Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 94.6%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet21. Nov. 22, 00:19 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's comment, in response to a query about constitutional eligibility, suggests that the market considers the possibility of changes to constitutional eligibility for Elon Musk.
- This implies that current ineligibility does not automatically preclude a YES resolution if legal frameworks (e.g., via a constitutional amendment) were to change to permit him to run and he subsequently does so.
- Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that the market tracks any serious candidacy effort, regardless of whether a constitutional amendment succeeds.
- YES if Elon Musk either:
- Is officially recognized as a candidate by filing FEC Form 2, OR
- Appears on at least one state’s official presidential ballot by Election Day 2028.
