Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 64.6%
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Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet6. Mai 26, 06:39 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?
Manifold MarketsDuolingo language rankings · #1 in 2026?
KalshiParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Got paid $10k for a debate with 47f
- https://youtu.be/FIg4zQKBpAs?t=3467
- Said he'd raise his prices next time.
- Resolves YES if he raises his price AND someone pays it before EOY 2027