Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 75.6%
Prognostiker
84
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet31. Dez. 23, 22:36 UTC2. Jan. 30, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump outlive any of his children?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWho will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump # Truth Social posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.
- If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 76% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? entschieden?
- Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? soll am 2. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.