Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 96.7%
Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
7. Juli 23, 10:03 UTC30. Juni 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican nominee?
Manifold MarketsLA-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRegeln
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
