Will Democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 202619T
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Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
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Veraltet19. Sept. 26, 03:15 UTC14. Nov. 26, 11:00 UTC
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Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
PolymarketWill Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsWill Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms?
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as a result of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections (scheduled for November 3, 2026), the Democratic Party wins back control of the House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.
- Specifically, YES will be the resolving outcome if:
- The Democratic Party wins a majority of at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.
- Or, if neither major party wins 218 seats due to independents or third-party representatives, the Democratic Party successfully organizes the chamber (e.g., by electing a Democrat as Speaker of the House at the start of the 120th Congress in January 2027).
- The market will resolve to NO if the Republican Party (or any other non-Democratic coalition) retains or wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber.