Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 82%
Prognostiker
53
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet3. Juli 23, 15:25 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Manifold MarketsWhat conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill race realism/scientific racism be proven true by 2050
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
I'll be using this list for qualifying conspiracy theories:
- https://www.teenvogue.com/story/most-popular-conspiracy-theories
- [link preview]I'll resolve this market YES if a consensus forms that any of these theories is broadly correct before the market resolution date.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- A longstanding wikipedia article stating that one of these things is true would resolve YES, though I'm open to large polls of experts or other standards for defining consensus.
- I will not bet in this market.
