Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
One-OffRohstoffe4J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 55.7%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert6. Apr. 26, 18:23 UTC31. Dez. 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
Manifold MarketsUS gas prices this week
KalshiWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2030.
- YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026–2030 NO if: No manufacturer reaches 1 GW annual threshold by Dec 31, 2030.
- Research modules, pilots, or indoor PV without bankable warranties do not count.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- NREL / IEA photovoltaic deployment tracking
- LONGi, Oxford PV commercial shipment announcements