Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.5%
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet26. Mai 23, 06:29 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will any of the US, EU, UK, or China have enacted a universal basic income before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any country implement "Universal Basic Compute" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government implement "Universal Basic Compute" by 2030?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketCrypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Policy criteria for YES resolution:
- Is a formal legislation
- Is nationwide (not a regional trial)
- Is stable (not a one-off payment; planned for at least 5+ years into the future)
- Occurs before Jan 1, 2040 EST
- If no policy satisfying all of the above conditions are implemented, the market will resolve NO.
