Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 97.4%
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet27. Juli 23, 05:18 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
OpenAI discovers room-temperature superconductor before EOY?
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Manifold MarketsWill a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if a top 5 smartphone brand by market share is available on sale with a room temperature superconductor in any part of it's composition
- Top 5 brands by market share are currently Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo, but I will re-review this when relevant.
- This restriction is to rule out hobbyists or other small-run shops pushing out something that may technically meet the criteria but is not widely available to verify room temp superconductor claims.
- The phone must be on sale, not just up for preorder, and in shops and not just a paper launch.
- Room temperature superconductor must be a component of the phone and not the manufacturing process.
