Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 69.8% (Stand: 30. Oktober 2026).

Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 69.8%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden

Veraltet

3. Aug. 23, 17:06 UTC2. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

This market resolves YES if a current Republican member of the US congress is identified as a white nationalist before 2030.

This market resolves NO if that does not happen.
Identifying someone as a white nationalist would involve them attending (in person, remotely, or asychronously through video or audio) or speaking at an event intended for white nationalists AND having this be credibly reported on.
To avoid controversy, I will use this archived list from wikipedia.
As a result, Rep. Greene and Rep. Gosar's attendance at the American First Political Action Committee does not qualify, while former Rep. King's attendance at an American Renaissance conference does qualify.
(Note: this question was inspired by former Rep. Steve King's history of racism.)