Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 69.5%
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Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet2. Sept. 22, 20:22 UTC1. Jan. 30, 08:00 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?
Manifold MarketsWill a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.
- It must be a pathogen that did not develop in the wild.
- Modified forms of wild pathogens count iff the modifications affect its behavior such that it is a greater threat to humans.
- (If there's a tradeoff involved, it must have become more of a threat on at least one axis.
- For example, if smallpox is modified to be more deadly but less transmissible, that qualifies.)
- If there are significant doubts as to whether the pathogen originated in a laboratory or in the wild, it does not qualify.
Offene Märkte
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 18.288,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 916.002,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1515,1 €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 863.640,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1039 €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 70% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? entschieden?
- Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.