Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 98%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet3. Juni 23, 15:18 UTC1. Feb. 35, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 10% of London die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Manifold MarketsWhen will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Some examples of disasters:
- -Nuclear strike
- -Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
- If a disaster affects Boston, Massachusetts, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
- We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
- If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.