Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahl2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseSomeone else is the Democratic nominee and that person WINS the presidency 13.6%Führend unter 22 Optionen
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 57 Minuten
Verzogert26. Aug. 26, 11:52 UTC7. Nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Conditional on (x) being the 2028 democratic nominee, (x) wins the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican nominee or Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic nominee of the 2028 presidential election be under the age of 50?
Manifold MarketsLA-04 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRegeln
This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Democratic Nominee: The individual who officially secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is formally certified by the Democratic National Committee to appear on the general election ballot in November 2028.
- Winning the Presidency: The candidate will be treated as having won the 2028 presidential election once there is a clear consensus among major reputable news organizations that they are the president-elect.
- For this purpose, “clear consensus” means the Associated Press has called the race for the candidate and at least two of Reuters, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, or NBC News have done the same.
- Resolution Rules:
- Only one option will resolve YES; all other options will resolve NO.
