Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars??

Manifold Markets bewertet SpaceX mit 78.6% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?

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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 10:22 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4

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SpaceX 78.6%

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If there is a joint effort between two organisations (eg spaceX and NASA) I'll resolve to the one that paid for the trip.

For example a spaceX rocket landing on the moon, paid for by the Artemis program, would resolve to NASA (if this market were about the moon.
If an organisation sells tickets, it's the organisation paying for the trip and not the people/organisation buying the tickets.
If they share the cost I'll resolve to the share of the cost the organisations pay.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-an-optimus-robot-walk-on-mars)