Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseTina Kotek - Oregon Governor 91.9%Führend unter 9 Optionen
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13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-1.1 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert30. Sept. 26, 05:31 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
KalshiWhich Dems will underperform Kamala?
PolymarketWill Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Kamala Harris announce her presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Kamala Harris be elected governor of California in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic candidate lose any state Kamala Harris won?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears.
- Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used.
- Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- Shares are compared unrounded.