Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2033 68.4%Führend unter 10 Optionen
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25
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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7d-Änderung
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Veraltet22. Feb. 26, 18:36 UTC1. Jan. 51, 07:59 UTC
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Winds of Winter released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next game of thrones book by GRR Martin - "winds of winter", be released?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Winds of Winter be released
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.
- Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date.
- If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts.
- A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel.
- Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists.
- Posthumous publication does not count.