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Daten vom 25.10.2026, 23:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNot before 2030 46.8%Führend unter 8 Optionen
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Veraltet21. Okt. 23, 07:20 UTC2. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be significant and successful effort to ban Kalshi & Polymarket in the USA before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegeln
The last major change to timekeeping in the US was in 2007, when the start and end dates of daylight saving time were adjusted.
- More recently, proposals including the Sunshine Protection Act and similar bills in various states, have sought to change official time standards.
- These have inspired other Manifold questions such as @/dreev/will-the-us-make-daylight-savings-t.
- Will any of these proposals be implemented in the 2020s? In what year?
- "Significant" means that it affects the entirety of a populated subdivision, that is, a state, the District of Columbia, or a territory with a permanent population.
- (For Arizona, this may be just the part of the state outside the Navajo Nation and Hopi Reservation.) This means, for example, redrawing time zone boundaries so that they don't pass through certain states wouldn't count.