When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
One-OffSpace10J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2031-2032 35.2%Führend unter 7 Optionen
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Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet11. Juni 26, 08:13 UTC31. Dez. 36, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegeln
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2031-2032 mit 35% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? entschieden?
- When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? soll am 31. Dezember 2036 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following: