Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2037 82.8%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Prognostiker
72
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet30. Aug. 25, 01:51 UTC22. Jan. 36, 00:37 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRegeln
This is a cumulative probability market.
- Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" resolve NO, and "the named outcome", "the named outcome", etc. will all resolve YES.
- Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died.
- For example, "the named outcome" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun.
- There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
