Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2037 82.8%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Prognostiker
72
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-2.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet30. Aug. 25, 01:51 UTC22. Jan. 36, 00:37 UTC
Trends
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRegeln
This is a cumulative probability market.
- Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" resolve NO, and "the named outcome", "the named outcome", etc. will all resolve YES.
- Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died.
- For example, "the named outcome" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun.
- There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
Offene Märkte
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2037 mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will Donald Trump die? entschieden?
- When will Donald Trump die? soll am 22. Januar 2036 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will Donald Trump die? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is a cumulative probability market.