Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 10:01 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Before Dec 1, 2026 8%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert4. Sept. 26, 11:39 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named "Mythos." Both conditions must be met by the same model:
- The model must be named "Mythos" (e.g., "Claude Mythos 5").
- A model that Anthropic describes as "Mythos-class" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., "Claude Fable 5"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.
- Public release.
- A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public.
- A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi — When will Anthropic release Mythos? · Before Jan 1, 2027 11%