Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 54.2%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
12. Jan. 26, 17:58 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?
Manifold MarketsWagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsWagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsChina's recycled aluminium production exceeds 15M tonnes in 2027?
Manifold MarketsMortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?
PolymarketIf the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The Wagerup gallium plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually.
- This market resolves YES if production in the trailing twelve months (T12M) as of Q2 2027 exceeds 10 tonnes.
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official quarterly or annual production reports, or verified third-party sources reporting Wagerup gallium output.
- The market resolves NO if T12M production as of Q2 2027 is 10 tonnes or below.
- Alcoa's Wagerup gallium plant is located at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with development supported by Japan Australia Gallium Associates (JAGA), a joint venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz, through a Joint Development Agreement signed with Alcoa in August 2025.
