Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84.8%
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This question resolves as Yes if, before January 20, 2029, the United States recognizes the Republic of China (hereafter Taiwan) as a de jure sovereign state.
- This considered to have happened if at least one of the following occurs:
- The US President issues a statement that the US formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign and/or independent state.
- For example, a statement similar to President Barack Obama's statement of July 9, 2011 recognizing the Republic of South Sudan or President Joe Biden's statement of September 25, 2023 recognizing Niue would count.
- The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan and/or accepts an ambassador from Taiwan.
- The head of mission must be formally credentialed as an ambassador per the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (pdf), not a "liaison officer," "chargé d'affaires," or other lower level or non-official diplomatic ranking.
