Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Führend unter 25 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet30. Sept. 25, 01:37 UTC31. Dez. 29, 00:26 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Alecto the Ninth come out before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWill "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)
- Ambiguous/iffy deaths will probably be invalidated if not sufficiently clear whether the character has actually died.
- Characters abandoning a previous identity does not count as them dying (i.e. Alayne Stone, Varys the Spider, etc.)
Offene Märkte
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 319.774,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 98.048,5 €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 79.986 €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 130.628,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 45.327 €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4 Mio. €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für "The Winds of Winter" character death market?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Barristan Selmy mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird "The Winds of Winter" character death market entschieden?
- "The Winds of Winter" character death market soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird "The Winds of Winter" character death market abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)