Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Führend unter 25 Optionen
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Prognostiker
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Fragetyp
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Veraltet30. Sept. 25, 01:37 UTC31. Dez. 29, 00:26 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Alecto the Ninth come out before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWill "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)
- Ambiguous/iffy deaths will probably be invalidated if not sufficiently clear whether the character has actually died.
- Characters abandoning a previous identity does not count as them dying (i.e. Alayne Stone, Varys the Spider, etc.)