Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 80%
Prognostiker
38
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet15. Nov. 22, 01:45 UTC31. Dez. 32, 22:17 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.
- Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count.
- Jury nullification doesn't count.
- Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 entschieden?
- Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 soll am 31. Dezember 2032 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.