Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet15. Nov. 22, 01:45 UTC31. Dez. 32, 22:17 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.
- Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count.
- Jury nullification doesn't count.
- Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.
