On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen?
One-OffUS-PolitikGesellschaft & Kultur2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 62.6%
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet13. Feb. 26, 23:08 UTC31. Dez. 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US Military kills 1+ US Citizen in military strike on alleged drug traffickers?
Manifold MarketsIf a US citizen is deported before 2029, will they be returned to the US before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump succeed in revoking the citizenship of any birthright US citizen?
Manifold MarketsWill I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsIdaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
PolymarketRegeln
DHS had detained Diaz Morales, who claims to be a US citizen; their official statement is that she is Mexican with no legal status in the US.
- As of the time of writing, she is temporarily released with an ankle monitor and check-ins with ICE.
- [tweet]https://www.newsweek.com/ice-detains-maryland-woman-us-citizen-claims-dhs-denies-11257159
- Resolves YES if I think she is obviously a US citizen on January 1st 2027.
- Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that the resolution standard is whether they think it's "obviously" a US citizen - a higher standard than just thinking it's true.
- The creator acknowledges this is a subjective judgment that may be difficult for traders to verify or predict, and that they could potentially weigh evidence wrongly at resolution time.
