Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 87.4%
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Veraltet6. Jan. 26, 00:52 UTC1. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PredictItWhat will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
KalshiAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketRegeln
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.