Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 87.4%
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20
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert6. Jan. 26, 00:52 UTC1. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PredictItWhat will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Manifold MarketsAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWill Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew Supreme Court justice confirmed?
KalshiRegeln
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.