Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2029 7%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet10. Okt. 23, 05:27 UTC1. Jan. 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
How will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsWhat new playable Super Smash Brothers characters will be added by 2028? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurWill the Live-Action Legend of Zelda movie be “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes? [Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRegeln
A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.
- This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes.
Offene Märkte
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 693.010,4 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 266.941,4 €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 248.725,9 €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2029 mit 7% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] entschieden?
- In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] soll am 1. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned