Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJon Ossoff 83.6%Führend unter 14 Optionen
Prognostiker
46
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 52 Minuten
Verzogert17. März 25, 01:16 UTC31. Dez. 28, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
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KalshiRegeln
A candidate is considered "nominated" if they are officially selected as the Democratic Party’s nominee at the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If no convention takes place, the nominee is the candidate listed on enough state ballots as the Democratic nominee to win an electoral majority.
- The market resolves as N/A for all candidates not nominated.
- A candidate is considered "elected" if they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election and secure enough electoral votes to become president, with the resolution based on official results from a reliable source such as the Associated Press, the Federal Election Commission, or the final vote count certified by Congress.
- If a nominated candidate drops out, is disqualified, or otherwise does not participate in the general election, the market resolves as NO for that candidate.
- If the nominee wins the election but does not take office, the market still resolves as YES.