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Verzogert4. Apr. 26, 12:21 UTC15. Aug. 29, 22:59 UTC
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TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsNew South Wales Legislative Council: Most Seats After Election
PolymarketIf Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketRegeln
The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.
- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
