Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 65.3%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet4. Apr. 26, 12:21 UTC15. Aug. 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras By-Election - Labour to Win
SmarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketRegeln
The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.
- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+2.6pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 112,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+7.9pt54%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-9.0pt44%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
- Gavin Newsom14.3%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 184,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 891.331 €
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson67.3%
- Susan Collins32.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 505.856,3 €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 25,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 384.309 €
KALSHIOhio Senate winner?
- Sherrod Brown-2.0pt51.5%
- Jon Husted+1.0pt48.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 358.266,3 €
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Iowa Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- TX-15 House winner?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 65% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? entschieden?
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? soll am 15. August 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.