Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)?

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 59.1% (Stand: 29. Oktober 2026).

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 59.1%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 58 Minuten

Verzogert

2. Dez. 25, 19:02 UTC30. Dez. 35, 18:53 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

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This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.