How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
PolitikOne-OffSchachUS-PolitikWahlSport8Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
21-25 31.9%Führend unter 10 Optionen
21-25 31.9%Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet7. Juli 24, 17:15 UTC1. Juli 27, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill all living current and past presidents attend Joe Biden's funeral?
Manifold MarketsBiden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
Manifold MarketsBiden ranked below W Bush in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
Manifold MarketsKimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketWhich 2026 California ballot measures will pass?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves according to the first C-SPAN Presidential Historian Survey where Biden is ranked (I think this will be the year after he leaves office) https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall
- If the Presidential Historian Survey is never released again, then resolves YES for Other and all other options resolve NO.
- The methodology in 2021 was: "a survey in which participants used a 1 ("not effective") to 10 ("very effective") scale to rate each president on 10 qualities of presidential leadership: Public Persuasion, Crisis Leadership, Economic Management, Moral Authority, International Relations, Administrative Skills, Relations with Congress, Vision/Setting an Agenda, Pursued Equal Justice for All and Performance Within the Context of the Times.
- Surveys are distributed to historians, professors and other professional observers of the presidency who are drawn from databases of C-SPAN programming, research in the field and suggestions from our academic advisers.
- Each cycle, we reach out to past participants and add new names to the list to maintain a well-rounded list of invited participants.
- This year, 142 completed the survey, up from 91 in 2017.
