How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 202628TManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2 22%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet26. Juni 26, 04:26 UTC3. Nov. 26, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
[image]This market scores our statistical model's current most-likely U.S. Senate map — the modal projected winner of each of the 35 seats up in 2026.
- Each outcome is the exact number of those 35 seats the map gets wrong once the election resolves (0 through 10, plus "the named outcome").
- It is the self-calibration counterpart to the two third-party map markets:
- 53R map (@EnopoletusHarding)
- 53D map (@Jack1)
- The model expects ~5.6 of its own best-guess calls to be wrong — the election is genuinely uncertain, and even the most-likely map has real exposure to a correlated national swing (a fat "the named outcome" tail).