Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet28. Juni 23, 01:24 UTC1. Jan. 27, 02:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
Manifold MarketsSourcery with Molly O'Shea: Will Donald Trump go on?
KalshiWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump go to Maine before election day?
Manifold MarketsWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?
KalshiRegeln
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
