Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für During which year will the Tontine surviving player count reach 100??

Manifold Markets bewertet 2026 or earlier mit 70.1% (Stand: 29. Oktober 2026).

During which year will the Tontine surviving player count reach 100?

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

2026 or earlier 70.1%

Führend unter 5 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Änderung

0.0 pts

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden

Veraltet

31. Aug. 23, 17:10 UTC2. Jan. 30, 05:05 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

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https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game.

On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated.
The last remaining player will win the pot.
As of 2023-8-31, 378 players remain.
The market resolves to the choice whose corresponding year includes the first day on which the living count is 100 or less, and resolves at 12:05 AM EST on that day or as soon as possible after that. "Other" will be used to extend closing dates if the population is still above 100 at the default closing date, which is 2030-1-1.
It resolves to to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.