Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 20262Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 27.10.2026, 03:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 95.9%
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet30. März 25, 22:01 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
PolymarketWill there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Currently the Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate (including the two independents who caucus with them, Sanders and King).
- This resolves YES if they GAIN seats (including any independents that caucus with them, or that a media consensus views as likely to caucus with them, or predominantly aligned with the democrat party and their views).
- If there are special elections or some sort of party flips of members between now and the election, this market will still require the democrats to gain seats during the midterms.
- That is to say, let's say one republican flips to being a democrat and there are then 48 dem seats in the senate, then they will have to have 49 seats after the midterm elections.
- If there are some sort of election-rigging claims, or the senate is disbanded, or the Trump admin stops democratic senators from being seated, or some other hijinxes ensue, I will use my judgement to ensure a fair resolution.
- Thus, I will not bet in this market.
