Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet27. Nov. 25, 18:29 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiMike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
PolymarketWho will win the January 2027 Speaker of the House election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Speaker of the House?
Manifold MarketsWill the Speaker of the House be Someone Other Than Mike Johnson OR Hakeem Jeffries before March 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House.
- However, it's possible that some Republicans will leave, or that Democrats will win some special elections for seats currently held by Republicans.
- Thus, I think there's some chance that Democrats will have a majority in the House before the next Congress starts (i.e. before January 3, 2027).
- This question resolves YES if a Democrat is elected Speaker of the House by the end of 2026.
- (I think edge cases are unlikely, but: if the House Speaker is a member of the House, then resolution will be based on whether they caucus with the Democrats; otherwise, it'll be based on party registration.)
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? entschieden?
- Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House.