Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 57.5%
Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet3. Jan. 24, 21:01 UTC2. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence emerge linking Richard David Precht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegeln
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741
- I do not bet on my markets.
